Memphis, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

982
FXUS64 KMEG 180537
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1137 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Showers will move through the area this evening into early tomorrow,
with total rainfall amounts of less than half an inch. Much, much
colder weather is expected beginning on Sunday through at least
the middle of next week. High temperatures will be in the 20s to
30s, with overnight lows in the teens to 20s. Wind chill
temperatures will likely be in the single digits Monday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Relatively warm and windy day across the Mid-South with
temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. Winds have become gusty this
afternoon with a tightening pressure gradient to our west as a
frontal boundary moves towards the area. Radar is beginning to
pick up a few echos ahead of this front, but low levels remain
much too dry for anything to reach the surface. Airmass will
begin to saturate over the next few hours ahead of this boundary
though and will eventually bring a quick shot of showers by this
evening into the overnight hours. Luckily, this system is moving
relatively fast and will only amount to rainfall totals of less
than half an inch. Behind this boundary, there is still some
question as to how long moisture will linger across the region. A
few CAMs do want to bring an additional wave by Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening, which could result in a few flurries
across northern portions of West TN and locations across the TN
River. There is still some uncertainty with this, but even if it
were to occur no accumulations or impacts are expected at this
time.

The pattern shift we have been highlighting over the past few
days will arrive on Sunday as a deep upper-level trough builds
through the region. This airmass will bring some of the coldest
temperatures of the winter season thus far, with high temperatures
falling into the 20s and 30s Sunday. On Monday and Tuesday, most
locations will struggle to reach above freezing for our high
temperatures. As such, most if not all of the Mid-South is likely
looking at a 48 to 72+ hour window where temperatures will not
rise above freezing from some point Sunday until Wednesday. Now
would be a good time to prepare for this and always remember the 4
Ps...people, pets, pipes, and plants in your preparations. In
addition, Monday morning does appear to be the coldest with a
combination of lows in the teens and some gusty winds overnight.
This will likely result in wind chill temperatures falling into
the single digits, which would reach Cold Weather Advisory
criteria across at least the southern two-thirds of the area.
Another note for the first half of next week, but models continue
to highlight a shortwave moving through the southeast on Tuesday,
which could bring some wintry weather for those to our south. Will
continue to highlight a slight chance of snow for our far
southern counties, but this does appear to be more of a problem
for those to our south than us at this point.

By Thursday and beyond, guidance continues to struggle with an
upper-level trough axis as it swings southward through the plains.
ENS guidance is leaning towards an overall warmer and drier
solution, with GEFS guidance leaning towards a cooler and wetter
pattern. Have left in some PoPs Thursday and Friday to account for
the spread, but really too much uncertainty to dive into any
specifics at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 17 2025

Scattered -SHRAs will continue overnight near all sites and
diminish around 18/12Z. Temporary MVFR/IFR VSBYs are possible with
the heaviest SHRAs, but will not prevail. MVFR CIGs will develop
over the next couple of hours and persist through the end of the
period. Some CIG improvement is possible by late afternoon
tomorrow, but should trend back to MVFR.

Hi-res model guidance suggests that there could be some --SN near
MKL near the end of the period, but confidence remains too low to
add at this time.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AC3